Default Analysis of Mixture Models using Expected
نویسنده
چکیده
Consider observations Y , distributed according to a mixture of densities Y P k j=1 w j f(j j); where 0 w j 1, P w j = 1, k and j correspond to unknown parameters of the mixture. In the a Bayesian framework, it is not possible to perform a default statistical analysis of the mixture using non-proper priors, N , for the component parameters, since the posterior distribution of these do not exist. In this work we suggest the use of the Expected Posterior Prior approach (P erez and Berger, 1999) to modify conventional, non-proper priors for j , j = 1; : : : ; k into priors that can be used for inference on the mixture model. The resulting priors have the form where m is a suitable measure over (possibly) imaginary training samples y 1 ; : : : ; y K. Both, a default and an empirical version of m are considered for the problem. The method is used for the estimation of Gamma Ray Burst, using a multivariate mixture model with errors on the observations. The estimation is done throughout a reversible jump Markov Chain Monte Carlo simulation (Green, 1995).
منابع مشابه
Dependence of Default Probability and Recovery Rate in Structural Credit Risk Models: Empirical Evidence from Greece
The main idea of this paper is to study the dependence between the probability of default and the recovery rate on credit portfolio and to seek empirically this relationship. We examine the dependence between PD and RR by theoretical approach. For the empirically methodology, we use the bootstrapped quantile regression and the simultaneous quantile regression. These methods allow to determinate...
متن کاملThe Current Models of Credit Portfolio Management: A Comparative Theoretical Analysis
The present paper aimed at studying the current models of credit portfolio management. There are currently three types of models which consider the risk of credit portfolio: the structural models (Moody's KMV model, and Credit- Metrics model), the intensity models (the actuarial models) and the econometric models (the Macro-factors model). The development of these three types of models is based...
متن کاملInvestigating the Theory of Survival Analysis in Credit Risk Management of Facility Receivers: A Case Study on Tose'e Ta'avon Bank of Guilan Province
Nowadays, one of the most important topics in risk management of banks, financial, and credit institutions is credit risk management. In this research, the researchers used survival analytic methods for credit risk modeling in terms of the conditional distribution function of default time. As a practical task, the authors considered the reward credit portfolio of Tose'e Ta'avon Bank of Guilan P...
متن کاملComparison of single distribution and mixture distribution models for modelling LGD
Estimating Recovery Rate and Recovery Amount has taken a more importance in consumer credit because of both the new Basel Accord regulation and the increase in number of defaulters due to the recession. We examine whether it is better to estimate Recovery Rate (RR) or Recovery amounts. We use linear regression and survival analysis models to model Recovery rate and Recovery amount, thus to pred...
متن کاملExpected Posterior Prior Distributions for Model Selection
Consider the problem of comparing parametric models M 1 ; : : : ; M k , when at least one of the models has an improper prior N i (i). Using the Bayes factor for comparing among these is not feasible due to arbitrary multiplicative constants in N (i). In this work we suggest adjusting the initial priors for each model, N i , by i (i) = Z N i (i jy)m (y)dy where m is a suitable predictive measur...
متن کاملذخیره در منابع من
با ذخیره ی این منبع در منابع من، دسترسی به آن را برای استفاده های بعدی آسان تر کنید
عنوان ژورنال:
دوره شماره
صفحات -
تاریخ انتشار 1999